Every Swingin’ Dick

AL East:
Yankees
Red Sox
Orioles
Blue Jays
Devil Rays

I’m really not sold on either the Yanks or the Red Sox, but the sheer magnitude of their payrolls forces me to put them at the top. Both teams have flaws, but I fully expect them to address their issues during the season through waiver pickups and trades. The Yanks are old. I fully expect Posada to go through a serious decline one of these years, and I think Jeter is due for a decline as well. I’m also not wild about the idea of giving Mientkiewicz very many at bats, and don’t think he will really get them. I wonder if Melky Cabrera tried on a first basemens glove over the winter…The Red Sox are depending on JD Drew, who will be injured for a chunk of the season because that is what he does. They do have a little depth with Wily Mo Pena, but if Eric Hinske gets written in the lineup card too often they may be in trouble. I like the O’s pitching at the top of the rotation, and Markakis could be due for a breakout season which is why I’m sliding them above the Blue Jays. I just don’t trust Toronto for some reason, and I really can’t put my finger on why that is. I love their bargain basement signing of John Thomson for the back of the rotation, but I don’t trust Chacin to perform and I don’t trust Big Frank to stay healthy. Wait, I know why I don’t trust them–Royce Clayton is penciled in as their starting SS. ‘Nuff said. The DRays were my choice to surprise last year. That didn’t work so well. They still have young talent all over the place, except for the mound. Which means their pitching stinks. I wonder why they don’t try BJ Upton there since they can’t seem to find anywhere else on the field they will play him.

AL Central:
Indians
White Sox
Twins
Tigers
Royals

I think the Tigers are going to experience a return to mean. I love the Sheffield addition to the lineup–he can flat out rake. I don’t think Mags is going to play a full schedule again with his injury history. Pudge has got to show his age at some point, and I’m not a big Sean Casey guy. I have a feeling that all of their young pitching is going to struggle this year as the rest of the league catches up. Rogers is starting the year on the DL, and Todd Jones is like 407 years old. I don’t trust them. I like the Indians lineup with it’s nice mix of experience and youth. It looks like Peralta actually worked this winter to get better, so maybe he won’t be a huge useless lump this season. Their rotation is really good, and though the bullpen is unsettled, there is always opportunity to rent a closer at some point in the season. My darkhorse prediction is that they will tread water for a while, and then Eric Wedge will get the boot for a new manager which will fire up the team towards a nice finish. The White Sox are old, and plan on batting Podsednik and Erstad 1-2 in the batting order. That is a .342 and .341 OBP respectively, which doesn’t look too terrible on the surface, but both of them have a lot of .310′s and .320′s in the history mixed in with some really good years (which I feel are behind them.) The Twins have arguably the game’s best player in Joe Mauer, and the reigning AL MVP in Morneau, but they also have Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz in their rotation. Yuck. The Royals remain the Royals. They stink. Hopefully Alex Gorden will come up at some point this year and give their fans some reason to watch their games.

AL West:
A’s
Rangers
Angels
Mariners

I’m still on the A’s bandwagon. They still have a good solid rotation with some depth, and their bullpen is excellent. Piazza should thrive in the DH role and be an adequate substitute for Big Frank. Chavez should be over his tendinitis that contributed to his offensive problems last year, and my fingers are crossed that Bobby Crosby can stay on the field. I love Ron Washington, the new Rangers manager, and think they may thrive now that Buck Showalter’s foot is off their neck. The Angels have a chance to be really good and win the division, but I have some questions about their rotation. Lackey and Santana are great, but Colon is still suffering from injuries, and Weaver may hit the sophomore slump. Their bullpen is still pretty good, and they have Vlad. Kendrick and Brandon Wood (who I think will be up sooner rather than later) can both hit and are / will be instant improvements of the incumbents. Gary Mathews Jr. won’t have the season at the plate he did last year, but he is really good in CF. That contract he signed is going to be an albatross in a year or two though. The Mariners are a mess. Their bullpen (save Putz who has been experiencing some injuries this spring) stinks, their rotation is OK at best (though Hernandez may be a monster), and their lineup is “eh.”

NL East:
Mets
Braves
Marlins
Phillies
Nationals

Last year I said, “I will not pick the Braves any lower than first until they don’t actually finish first.” So this year I have them second. The Mets are still the best team in the NL East. Their lineup is quite good. I’m not sold on Shawn Green, but he’ll be OK. Jose Valentin will be hard pressed to repeat last year’s numbers as well. However, like the Yanks and Red Sox, the Mets have the resources to add pieces to the puzzle later this season. If the Braves can get their rotation back on track, they could be contenders again. They added two really nice bullpen guys in Soriano and Gonzalez, so that may help their rotation out. If Francoeur could learn to be slightly selective at the plate, he could have a “Sammy Sosa with the Cubs” type explosion in his offense. So long as he keeps swinging at the first pitch or at sliders in the dirt, he will simply be a mistake hitter who shows great talent but not enough success on the field. The Phills are OK, but I don’t think they scare anyone. Howard can’t possibly repeat last year’s success (can he?) and giving Wes Helms 500 ABs probably isn’t the best idea. The Marlins are still super young and have no payroll. They won’t be much of a treat. The Nats flat out stink. Ryan Zimmerman looks like a great player in the making. I feel sorry for him.

NL Central:
Brewers
Cardinals
Astros
Cubs
Pirates
Reds

I like the Brewers a lot. They are very A’s-like in that they don’t really have a big star, but they do have balance and talent in their lineup. Fielder and Weeks both look like nice players, and Hart could become one as well. Add Ryan Braun somewhere during the season and they have about the best collection of young hitters in the game. Their rotation lacks star-power, but they are all good pitchers and there is depth in AAA as well. The Cards really don’t look that good on paper, but they have Pujols and Carpenter. That may be enough. The Astros have an ace in Oswalt, and a pretty good lineup that plays in a matchbox sized stadium. They will score runs and pitch well enough. If Clemens is added at some point, they become instant contenders again. I’m not drinking the Kool-Aid on the Cubs. They spent a lot of money this offseason, but I’m not sure they spent it wisely. Soriono just isn’t as good a player as his big stats make him look. Last year he was really good, but it was also a contract year. I don’t believe he will approach those numbers again. The Pirates stink. The Reds stink.

NL West:
Diamondbacks
Dodgers
Padres
Rockies
Giants

I really like the Diamondback’s pitching, and they have a collection of nice young hitters in Chris Young and Carlos Quentin, Stephen Drew and Connor Jackson. The Dodgers did some good things this winter (Jason Schmidt) and some terrible things (Juan Pierre.) We’ll see. If the Padres get a return to form from the younger Giles, they could be a pretty good offensive club. The pitching looks to be pretty solid, and they could be in the mix. Continued improvement from guys like Atkins, Holliday and Hawpe will keep the Rockies out of the cellar. I don’t know how that team will ever win anything, it is just impossible to keep a pitching staff held together in that stadium of theirs. It just takes too much of a toll on their guys. The Giants just get older and older every year, and I feel this will be the year is finally kills them. Zito and Cain are a good start to a rotation, but Russ Ortiz is a terrible way to round it out. Bonds will hit when he plays, but will anyone be on base in front of him enough to make it matter?

I’m going to try and get a MLB preview up in the next couple of days. Cross your fingers…

In the proud Swingin’ Dick tradition of cut & pasting emails so I don’t have to write stuff twice, I give you the following exchange about Jared Zabransky:

Pava: ZABRANSKY!

YAY!

Dude, I SO hope he gets drafted.

Me: I will be surprised if he isn’t at least drafted. I’m seeing him as anywhere from the 9th to the 15th best QB in the draft on most ranking lists. Bad sign–he has been asked by several teams about converting to safety.

Pava: How is he going to work his razzle dazzle if he’s a safety? Do you think he’d be good at safety?

Me: Good at safety? No. Probably not. It is hard enough to play a position you have played in college at the next level, let alone a new one on the other side of the ball. WR or RB maybe, if they are really athletic. I’m not sure Zabransky is fast enough or big enough to play safety. I think he’ll get a shot in the NFL as a QB. In my mind (not having seen him play a ton mind you) his highest ceiling comparable is Marc Bulger, or he could be the next Ryan Dinwiddie. Yes, the Ryan Dinwiddie that lit up everyone as a QB for Boise State in 2002 & 2003. I really think the CFL or Arena league is where he’ll end up, and he’ll probably be good there. If he wants to play somewhere for no money.

This is one of my biggest pet peeves of the draft process. In college you can recruit guys as athletes, because you have them for (probably) four years. In the NFL with the tight rosters, you can’t really hide a guy and let him learn. There is the practice squad, but they don’t get the coaching attention they would need to become a decent player.

Exceptions to the rule of course, but I don’t see it happening. See Scott Frost.

All that being said, QB is the biggest scouting and drafting crapshoot there is.